Scientists have escalated concerns over asteroid 2024 YR4, a sizeable space rock with an increasing likelihood of colliding with Earth in 2032, reported the New York Post.
According to the latest calculations by NASA, the asteroid now has a 2.6 per cent chance of impact—a probability of 1 in 38—marking the highest risk level assigned to it thus far, reported the publication citing a New Scientist report.
First detected in December 2024, YR4 was initially deemed to have a 1-in-83 chance of striking the planet. However, as astronomers gathered more data, those odds worsened, climbing from 1-in-67 to 1-in-53, then 1-in-43, and now the current concerning figure. The European Space Agency’s calculations offer a slightly lower probability of impact at 2.4 per cent.
NASA has designated the asteroid as a Level 3 threat on the Torino Scale, a system used to categorise Near Earth Objects (NEOs) based on their potential risk. Objects rated at this level merit serious observation, as they have a one per cent or greater chance of collision and could cause localised destruction.
YR4’s estimated size ranges between 131 and 295 feet in diameter. If it were to strike, scientists estimate that the resultant explosion would unleash energy equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT—roughly 500 times the force of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, reported the Independent.
Reportedly, the asteroid’s projected path puts some of the world’s most densely populated cities in its possible trajectory, including Mumbai and Chennai in India, Lagos in Nigeria, and Bogotá in Colombia, placing around 110 million people at risk.
Despite the alarming probability increase, experts urge caution in drawing conclusions. Professor Hugh Lewis, an astronautics specialist at the University of Southampton, reassured that “just because the probability has risen does not mean it will continue to do so.”
NASA’s Molly L Wasser echoed this, stating that YR4 could still be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has occurred with other asteroids previously considered risky. However, she acknowledged that further monitoring is crucial, as the probability could also continue to rise.
Scientists have limited time to refine their calculations, as YR4 will disappear behind the Sun in April, making it unobservable from Earth until 2028. In the meantime, astronomers plan to utilise the James Webb Space Telescope to analyse the asteroid’s infrared emissions, allowing them to determine its precise size and, consequently, the potential impact damage.
For now, researchers remain vigilant, gathering as much data as possible to assess whether Earth could be in serious danger—or if this is yet another celestial false alarm.
