Asteroid 2024 YR4, a large space rock continues to be in the spotlight since being discovered in December last year. Earlier this week, scientists increased the chances of the asteroid striking the earth above the threshold level of one percent but later revised them to as low as 0.28%. Now new predictions of the moon-asteroid collision have surfaced.
US space agency NASA in a post on X stated, “New data gathered last night (Feb. 19-20) dropped the December 2032 impact odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 to 0.28%. Monitoring continues.”
The city killer asteroid first made headlines after astronomers predicted that it has 1.5 percent, or 1 in 67, probability of hitting the Earth during its close approach on December 22, 2032. As NASA and other space agencies across the world, continue to closely monitor its trajectory new developments lower the possibility of an Earth-asteroid collision.
Expected damage in Earth-asteroid collision
According to NASA, the damage caused by an impacting asteroid depends greatly on the exact size and composition of the asteroid. “The exact size of 2024 YR4 is still uncertain, but an airburst is a likely scenario for its size range,” NASA said.
Suggesting the possible impact of a strike, NASA explained that an airburst of smaller size range, about 130 – 200 feet (40 – 60 meters) could shatter windows or cause minor structural damage across a city. Meanwhile, an asteroid of about 300 feet (90 meters) in size can cause severe damage, which could potentially impact residential structures across a city that may collapse, and windows may shatter across larger regions.
Asteroid-Moon clash
Initially, space scientists suggested 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032 but now experts suggest that it is now more likely to smash into the Moon. Estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide, there is 1 percent probability of the space rock striking the Moon.
Notably, several space objects have passed closer to Earth than the Moon since 2024 YR4 was first spotted, which in astronomical terms is a near miss.
